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WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: 25.02.2024 05.45 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2024 Feb 25 0545 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Feb 25 1500 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

SUMMARY
10cm Radio Burst
Issued: 22.02.2024 23.41 UTC
10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2024 Feb 22 2224 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Feb 22 2225 UTC
End Time: 2024 Feb 22 2235 UTC
Duration: 11 minutes
Peak Flux: 240 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 173 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

SUMMARY
X-ray Event exceeded X1
Issued: 22.02.2024 22.53 UTC
X-ray Event exceeded X1
Begin Time: 2024 Feb 22 2208 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Feb 22 2234 UTC
End Time: 2024 Feb 22 2243 UTC
X-ray Class: X6.3
Optical Class: 3b
Location: N22E24
NOAA Scale: R3 - Strong

Potential Impacts: Area of impact consists of large portions of the sunlit side of Earth, strongest at the sub-solar point.
Radio - Wide area blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for about an hour.

ALERT
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Publié: 22.02.2024 22.30 UTC
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2024 Feb 22 2225 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap.

WATCH
Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted
Publié: 22.02.2024 19.17 UTC
Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted

Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Feb 23: None (Below G1) Feb 24: None (Below G1) Feb 25: G1 (Minor)

THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

ALERT
Type IV Radio Emission
Publié: 22.02.2024 12.26 UTC
Type IV Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2024 Feb 22 1158 UTC
Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.

ALERT
Type II Radio Emission
Publié: 22.02.2024 10.08 UTC
Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2024 Feb 22 0944 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 154 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

SUMMARY
X-ray Event exceeded X1
Publié: 22.02.2024 06.47 UTC
X-ray Event exceeded X1
Begin Time: 2024 Feb 22 0617 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Feb 22 0632 UTC
End Time: 2024 Feb 22 0640 UTC
X-ray Class: X1.7
Optical Class: 2b
Location: N14E35
NOAA Scale: R3 - Strong

Potential Impacts: Area of impact consists of large portions of the sunlit side of Earth, strongest at the sub-solar point.
Radio - Wide area blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for about an hour.

ALERT
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Publié: 22.02.2024 06.31 UTC
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2024 Feb 22 0629 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap.

SUMMARY
X-ray Event exceeded X1
Publié: 21.02.2024 23.21 UTC
X-ray Event exceeded X1
Begin Time: 2024 Feb 21 2252 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Feb 21 2307 UTC
End Time: 2024 Feb 21 2314 UTC
X-ray Class: X1.8
Location: N14E39
NOAA Scale: R3 - Strong

Potential Impacts: Area of impact consists of large portions of the sunlit side of Earth, strongest at the sub-solar point.
Radio - Wide area blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for about an hour.

ALERT
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Publié: 21.02.2024 23.06 UTC
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2024 Feb 21 2304 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap.

ALERT
Type II Radio Emission
Publié: 21.02.2024 04.13 UTC
Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2024 Feb 21 0201 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 627 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

ALERT
Type II Radio Emission
Publié: 17.02.2024 18.12 UTC
Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2024 Feb 17 1329 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 816 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

CANCEL WARNING
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Publié: 16.02.2024 17.30 UTC
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Cancel Serial Number: 546
Original Issue Time: 2024 Feb 16 0807 UTC

Comment: Conditions no longer meet warning criteria.

Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

CANCEL WARNING
Proton 100MeV Integral Flux above 1pfu expected
Publié: 16.02.2024 17.30 UTC
Proton 100MeV Integral Flux above 1pfu expected
Cancel Serial Number: 98
Original Issue Time: 2024 Feb 16 0807 UTC

Comment: Conditions no longer meet warning criteria.

Potential Impacts: An enhancement in the energetic portion of the solar radiation spectrum may indicate increased biological risk to astronauts or passengers and crew in high latitude, high altitude flights. Additionally, energetic particles may represent an increased risk to all satellite systems susceptible to single event effects. This information should be used in conjunction with the current Solar Radiation Storm conditions when assessing overall impact.

WARNING
Proton 100MeV Integral Flux above 1pfu expected
Publié: 16.02.2024 08.07 UTC
Proton 100MeV Integral Flux above 1pfu expected
Valid From: 2024 Feb 16 0806 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Feb 17 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: An enhancement in the energetic portion of the solar radiation spectrum may indicate increased biological risk to astronauts or passengers and crew in high latitude, high altitude flights. Additionally, energetic particles may represent an increased risk to all satellite systems susceptible to single event effects. This information should be used in conjunction with the current Solar Radiation Storm conditions when assessing overall impact.

WARNING
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Publié: 16.02.2024 08.07 UTC
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Valid From: 2024 Feb 16 0806 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Feb 17 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
Predicted NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

ALERT
Type IV Radio Emission
Publié: 16.02.2024 07.18 UTC
Type IV Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2024 Feb 16 0653 UTC
Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.

SUMMARY
10cm Radio Burst
Publié: 16.02.2024 07.17 UTC
10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2024 Feb 16 0651 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Feb 16 0651 UTC
End Time: 2024 Feb 16 0656 UTC
Duration: 5 minutes
Peak Flux: 420 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 178 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

SUMMARY
X-ray Event exceeded X1
Publié: 16.02.2024 07.10 UTC
X-ray Event exceeded X1
Begin Time: 2024 Feb 16 0642 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Feb 16 0653 UTC
End Time: 2024 Feb 16 0658 UTC
X-ray Class: X2.5
Optical Class: na
Location: S16W85
NOAA Scale: R3 - Strong

Potential Impacts: Area of impact consists of large portions of the sunlit side of Earth, strongest at the sub-solar point.
Radio - Wide area blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for about an hour.

ALERT
Type II Radio Emission
Publié: 16.02.2024 07.05 UTC
Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2024 Feb 16 0653 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 2674 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

ALERT
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Publié: 16.02.2024 06.55 UTC
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2024 Feb 16 0651 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap.

SUMMARY
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 100pfu
Publié: 15.02.2024 23.35 UTC
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 100pfu
Begin Time: 2024 Feb 12 0805 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Feb 13 0615 UTC
End Time: 2024 Feb 14 2000 UTC
Maximum 10MeV Flux: 118 pfu
NOAA Scale: S2 - Moderate

CANCEL WARNING
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Publié: 15.02.2024 23.33 UTC
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Cancel Serial Number: 544
Original Issue Time: 2024 Feb 12 0813 UTC

Comment: Conditions no longer meet warning criteria.

Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

ALERT
Type II Radio Emission
Publié: 15.02.2024 14.01 UTC
Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2024 Feb 15 0910 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 1959 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

EXTENDED WARNING
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Publié: 15.02.2024 11.47 UTC
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Extension to Serial Number: 543
Valid From: 2024 Feb 12 0810 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Feb 15 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
Predicted NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor

Comment: 10 MeV protons have been between 6-8 pfu. Potential still exists to rise above 10 pfu threshold due to recent activity on the far side of the disk

Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

ALERT
Type II Radio Emission
Publié: 15.02.2024 03.12 UTC
Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2024 Feb 15 0236 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 433 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

ALERT
Type II Radio Emission
Publié: 15.02.2024 03.11 UTC
Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2024 Feb 15 0230 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 376 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

EXTENDED WARNING
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Publié: 14.02.2024 19.10 UTC
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Extension to Serial Number: 542
Valid From: 2024 Feb 12 0810 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Feb 15 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
Predicted NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Publié: 14.02.2024 05.42 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2024 Feb 14 0542 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Feb 14 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

ALERT
Type IV Radio Emission
Publié: 14.02.2024 04.35 UTC
Type IV Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2024 Feb 14 0400 UTC
Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.

ALERT
Type II Radio Emission
Publié: 14.02.2024 04.35 UTC
Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2024 Feb 14 0355 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 343 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

SUMMARY
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 100pfu
Publié: 13.02.2024 21.53 UTC
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 100pfu
Begin Time: 2024 Feb 13 0545 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Feb 13 0615 UTC
End Time: 2024 Feb 13 0640 UTC
Maximum 10MeV Flux: 118 pfu
NOAA Scale: S2 - Moderate

EXTENDED WARNING
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Publié: 13.02.2024 17.55 UTC
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Extension to Serial Number: 541
Valid From: 2024 Feb 12 0810 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Feb 14 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
Predicted NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Publié: 13.02.2024 17.43 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2024 Feb 13 1740 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1500-1800 UTC

Active Warning: Yes

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Publié: 13.02.2024 16.42 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2024 Feb 13 1641 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Feb 14 0300 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

ALERT
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 100pfu
Publié: 13.02.2024 06.03 UTC
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 100pfu
Begin Time: 2024 Feb 13 0545 UTC
NOAA Scale: S2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Radiation - Passengers and crew in high latitude, high altitude flights may experience small, increased radiation exposures.
Spacecraft - Infrequent single-event upsets to satellites are possible.
Radio - Small effects on polar HF (high frequency) propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

EXTENDED WARNING
Proton 100MeV Integral Flux above 1pfu expected
Publié: 12.02.2024 21.11 UTC
Proton 100MeV Integral Flux above 1pfu expected
Extension to Serial Number: 96
Valid From: 2024 Feb 12 1050 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Feb 13 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: An enhancement in the energetic portion of the solar radiation spectrum may indicate increased biological risk to astronauts or passengers and crew in high latitude, high altitude flights. Additionally, energetic particles may represent an increased risk to all satellite systems susceptible to single event effects. This information should be used in conjunction with the current Solar Radiation Storm conditions when assessing overall impact.

EXTENDED WARNING
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Publié: 12.02.2024 21.10 UTC
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Extension to Serial Number: 540
Valid From: 2024 Feb 12 0810 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Feb 13 1800 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
Predicted NOAA Scale: S2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

CANCEL ALERT
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 100pfu
Publié: 12.02.2024 15.22 UTC
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 100pfu
Cancel Serial Number: 67
Original Issue Time: 2024 Feb 12 1040 UTC

Comment: Issued in mistake. 10MeV protons have not yet reached the S2 (100pfu) threshold. Current max is 76.2 pfu at 12/1450 UTC.

Potential Impacts: Radiation - Passengers and crew in high latitude, high altitude flights may experience small, increased radiation exposures.
Spacecraft - Infrequent single-event upsets to satellites are possible.
Radio - Small effects on polar HF (high frequency) propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

WARNING
Proton 100MeV Integral Flux above 1pfu expected
Publié: 12.02.2024 11.01 UTC
Proton 100MeV Integral Flux above 1pfu expected
Valid From: 2024 Feb 12 1050 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Feb 12 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: An enhancement in the energetic portion of the solar radiation spectrum may indicate increased biological risk to astronauts or passengers and crew in high latitude, high altitude flights. Additionally, energetic particles may represent an increased risk to all satellite systems susceptible to single event effects. This information should be used in conjunction with the current Solar Radiation Storm conditions when assessing overall impact.

ALERT
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 100pfu
Publié: 12.02.2024 10.40 UTC
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 100pfu
Begin Time: 2024 Feb 12 1020 UTC
NOAA Scale: S2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Radiation - Passengers and crew in high latitude, high altitude flights may experience small, increased radiation exposures.
Spacecraft - Infrequent single-event upsets to satellites are possible.
Radio - Small effects on polar HF (high frequency) propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

SUMMARY
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 10pfu
Publié: 12.02.2024 08.27 UTC
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 10pfu
Begin Time: 2024 Feb 09 1530 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Feb 09 2355 UTC
End Time: 2024 Feb 11 1805 UTC
Maximum 10MeV Flux: 187 pfu
NOAA Scale: S2 - Moderate

ALERT
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 10pfu
Publié: 12.02.2024 08.22 UTC
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 10pfu
Begin Time: 2024 Feb 12 0805 UTC
NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

WARNING
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Publié: 12.02.2024 08.13 UTC
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Valid From: 2024 Feb 12 0810 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Feb 12 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
Predicted NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

ALERT
Type IV Radio Emission
Publié: 12.02.2024 07.27 UTC
Type IV Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2024 Feb 12 0635 UTC
Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.

SUMMARY
X-ray Event exceeded M5
Publié: 12.02.2024 04.10 UTC
X-ray Event exceeded M5
Begin Time: 2024 Feb 12 0323 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Feb 12 0348 UTC
End Time: 2024 Feb 12 0353 UTC
X-ray Class: M6.3
Location: S15W26
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered primarily on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth.
Radio - Limited blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for tens of minutes.

ALERT
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Publié: 12.02.2024 03.47 UTC
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2024 Feb 12 0346 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Publié: 11.02.2024 11.40 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4544
Valid From: 2024 Feb 11 0217 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Feb 12 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

SUMMARY
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 100pfu
Publié: 11.02.2024 08.48 UTC
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 100pfu
Begin Time: 2024 Feb 09 2310 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Feb 09 2355 UTC
End Time: 2024 Feb 11 0355 UTC
Maximum 10MeV Flux: 187 pfu
NOAA Scale: S2 - Moderate

WATCH
Geomagnetic Storm Category G2 Predicted
Publié: 11.02.2024 07.46 UTC
Geomagnetic Storm Category G2 Predicted

Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Feb 12: G1 (Minor) Feb 13: G2 (Moderate) Feb 14: G1 (Minor)

THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

EXTENDED WARNING
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Publié: 11.02.2024 05.55 UTC
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Extension to Serial Number: 538
Valid From: 2024 Feb 09 1520 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Feb 12 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
Predicted NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

SUMMARY
X-ray Event exceeded M5
Publié: 11.02.2024 02.51 UTC
X-ray Event exceeded M5
Begin Time: 2024 Feb 10 2256 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Feb 10 2307 UTC
End Time: 2024 Feb 10 2314 UTC
X-ray Class: M9.0
Optical Class: 1f
Location: S15W09
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered primarily on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth.
Radio - Limited blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for tens of minutes.

SUMMARY
Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Publié: 11.02.2024 02.29 UTC
Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Observed: 2024 Feb 11 0211 UTC
Deviation: 40 nT
Station: Boulder

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Publié: 11.02.2024 02.23 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2024 Feb 11 0220 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Feb 11 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Publié: 11.02.2024 02.20 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2024 Feb 11 0220 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC

Active Warning: Yes

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

ALERT
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 100pfu
Publié: 11.02.2024 02.19 UTC
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 100pfu
Begin Time: 2024 Feb 11 0210 UTC
NOAA Scale: S2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Radiation - Passengers and crew in high latitude, high altitude flights may experience small, increased radiation exposures.
Spacecraft - Infrequent single-event upsets to satellites are possible.
Radio - Small effects on polar HF (high frequency) propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Publié: 11.02.2024 02.17 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2024 Feb 11 0217 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Feb 11 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WARNING
Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
Publié: 11.02.2024 01.37 UTC
Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
Valid From: 2024 Feb 11 0155 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Feb 11 0255 UTC
IP Shock Passage Observed: 2024 Feb 11 0123 UTC

ALERT
Type IV Radio Emission
Publié: 10.02.2024 23.59 UTC
Type IV Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2024 Feb 10 2305 UTC
Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.

SUMMARY
10cm Radio Burst
Publié: 10.02.2024 23.23 UTC
10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2024 Feb 10 2303 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Feb 10 2304 UTC
End Time: 2024 Feb 10 2308 UTC
Duration: 5 minutes
Peak Flux: 360 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 194 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

ALERT
Type II Radio Emission
Publié: 10.02.2024 23.22 UTC
Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2024 Feb 10 2256 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 2170 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

ALERT
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Publié: 10.02.2024 23.07 UTC
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2024 Feb 10 2304 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap.

WATCH
Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted
Publié: 10.02.2024 22.24 UTC
Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted

Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Feb 11: None (Below G1) Feb 12: G1 (Minor) Feb 13: G1 (Minor)

THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

EXTENDED WARNING
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Publié: 10.02.2024 05.55 UTC
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Extension to Serial Number: 537
Valid From: 2024 Feb 09 1520 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Feb 11 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
Predicted NOAA Scale: S2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

SUMMARY
10cm Radio Burst
Publié: 10.02.2024 05.05 UTC
10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2024 Feb 10 0359 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Feb 10 0401 UTC
End Time: 2024 Feb 10 0404 UTC
Duration: 5 minutes
Peak Flux: 250 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 183 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

SUMMARY
10cm Radio Burst
Publié: 10.02.2024 04.09 UTC
10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2024 Feb 10 0335 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Feb 10 0342 UTC
End Time: 2024 Feb 10 0354 UTC
Duration: 19 minutes
Peak Flux: 220 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 183 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

ALERT
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 100pfu
Publié: 09.02.2024 18.38 UTC
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 100pfu
Begin Time: 2024 Feb 09 1815 UTC
NOAA Scale: S2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Radiation - Passengers and crew in high latitude, high altitude flights may experience small, increased radiation exposures.
Spacecraft - Infrequent single-event upsets to satellites are possible.
Radio - Small effects on polar HF (high frequency) propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

ALERT
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 10pfu
Publié: 09.02.2024 15.45 UTC
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 10pfu
Begin Time: 2024 Feb 09 1530 UTC
NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

WARNING
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Publié: 09.02.2024 15.14 UTC
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Valid From: 2024 Feb 09 1520 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Feb 10 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
Predicted NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

SUMMARY
10cm Radio Burst
Publié: 09.02.2024 13.50 UTC
10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2024 Feb 09 1258 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Feb 09 1306 UTC
End Time: 2024 Feb 09 1325 UTC
Duration: 27 minutes
Peak Flux: 1000 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 185 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

SUMMARY
X-ray Event exceeded X1
Publié: 09.02.2024 13.45 UTC
X-ray Event exceeded X1
Begin Time: 2024 Feb 09 1253 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Feb 09 1314 UTC
End Time: 2024 Feb 09 1332 UTC
X-ray Class: X3..3
Location: S37W97
NOAA Scale: R3 - Strong

Potential Impacts: Area of impact consists of large portions of the sunlit side of Earth, strongest at the sub-solar point.
Radio - Wide area blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for about an hour.

ALERT
Type IV Radio Emission
Publié: 09.02.2024 13.23 UTC
Type IV Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2024 Feb 09 1307 UTC
Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.

ALERT
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Publié: 09.02.2024 13.07 UTC
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2024 Feb 09 1303 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap.

ALERT
Type II Radio Emission
Publié: 08.02.2024 12.13 UTC
Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2024 Feb 08 1149 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 363 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

SUMMARY
X-ray Event exceeded M5
Publié: 07.02.2024 04.46 UTC
X-ray Event exceeded M5
Begin Time: 2024 Feb 07 0304 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Feb 07 0331 UTC
End Time: 2024 Feb 07 0411 UTC
X-ray Class: M5.1
Optical Class: sf
Location: S40W78
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered primarily on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth.
Radio - Limited blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for tens of minutes.

SUMMARY
10cm Radio Burst
Publié: 07.02.2024 04.13 UTC
10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2024 Feb 07 0314 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Feb 07 0347 UTC
End Time: 2024 Feb 07 0356 UTC
Duration: 42 minutes
Peak Flux: 390 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 190 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

ALERT
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Publié: 07.02.2024 03.32 UTC
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2024 Feb 07 0329 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap.

ALERT
Type IV Radio Emission
Publié: 06.02.2024 03.53 UTC
Type IV Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2024 Feb 06 0314 UTC
Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.

ALERT
Type II Radio Emission
Publié: 06.02.2024 03.49 UTC
Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2024 Feb 06 0310 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 431 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

SUMMARY
10cm Radio Burst
Publié: 06.02.2024 02.56 UTC
10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2024 Feb 06 0213 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Feb 06 0219 UTC
End Time: 2024 Feb 06 0233 UTC
Duration: 20 minutes
Peak Flux: 470 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 173 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

ALERT
Type II Radio Emission
Publié: 04.02.2024 22.48 UTC
Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2024 Feb 04 2101 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 434 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

WATCH
Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted
Publié: 03.02.2024 00.09 UTC
Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted

Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Feb 04: None (Below G1) Feb 05: G1 (Minor) Feb 06: None (Below G1)

THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

ALERT
Type II Radio Emission
Publié: 02.02.2024 12.06 UTC
Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2024 Feb 02 1107 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 874 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

ALERT
Type II Radio Emission
Publié: 02.02.2024 03.48 UTC
Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2024 Feb 02 0306 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 1444 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

SUMMARY
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 10pfu
Publié: 30.01.2024 11.53 UTC
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 10pfu
Begin Time: 2024 Jan 29 0615 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Jan 29 1805 UTC
End Time: 2024 Jan 30 0425 UTC
Maximum 10MeV Flux: 137 pfu
NOAA Scale: S2 - Moderate

SUMMARY
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 100pfu
Publié: 30.01.2024 02.34 UTC
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 100pfu
Begin Time: 2024 Jan 29 0615 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Jan 29 1805 UTC
End Time: 2024 Jan 30 0230 UTC
Maximum 10MeV Flux: 137 pfu
NOAA Scale: S2 - Moderate

EXTENDED WARNING
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Publié: 29.01.2024 17.57 UTC
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Extension to Serial Number: 535
Valid From: 2024 Jan 29 0500 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Jan 30 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
Predicted NOAA Scale: S2 - Moderate

Comment: S2 threshold was reached at 29/1740 UTC

Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

ALERT
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 100pfu
Publié: 29.01.2024 17.57 UTC
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 100pfu
Begin Time: 2024 Jan 29 1740 UTC
NOAA Scale: S2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Radiation - Passengers and crew in high latitude, high altitude flights may experience small, increased radiation exposures.
Spacecraft - Infrequent single-event upsets to satellites are possible.
Radio - Small effects on polar HF (high frequency) propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

ALERT
Type II Radio Emission
Publié: 29.01.2024 11.46 UTC
Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2024 Jan 29 1021 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 393 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

CANCEL WARNING
Proton 100MeV Integral Flux above 1pfu expected
Publié: 29.01.2024 07.31 UTC
Proton 100MeV Integral Flux above 1pfu expected
Cancel Serial Number: 94
Original Issue Time: 2024 Jan 29 0502 UTC

Comment: 100 MeV levels reached a maximum of 0.676 pfu at 29/0605 UTC and are currently trending down.

Potential Impacts: An enhancement in the energetic portion of the solar radiation spectrum may indicate increased biological risk to astronauts or passengers and crew in high latitude, high altitude flights. Additionally, energetic particles may represent an increased risk to all satellite systems susceptible to single event effects. This information should be used in conjunction with the current Solar Radiation Storm conditions when assessing overall impact.

ALERT
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 10pfu
Publié: 29.01.2024 06.32 UTC
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 10pfu
Begin Time: 2024 Jan 29 0615 UTC
NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

SUMMARY
X-ray Event exceeded M5
Publié: 29.01.2024 05.36 UTC
X-ray Event exceeded M5
Begin Time: 2024 Jan 29 0354 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Jan 29 0438 UTC
End Time: 2024 Jan 29 0515 UTC
X-ray Class: M6.7
Optical Class: sf
Location: N25W70
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered primarily on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth.
Radio - Limited blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for tens of minutes.

ALERT
Type II Radio Emission
Publié: 29.01.2024 05.16 UTC
Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2024 Jan 29 0407 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 512 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

WARNING
Proton 100MeV Integral Flux above 1pfu expected
Publié: 29.01.2024 05.02 UTC
Proton 100MeV Integral Flux above 1pfu expected
Valid From: 2024 Jan 29 0502 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Jan 29 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: An enhancement in the energetic portion of the solar radiation spectrum may indicate increased biological risk to astronauts or passengers and crew in high latitude, high altitude flights. Additionally, energetic particles may represent an increased risk to all satellite systems susceptible to single event effects. This information should be used in conjunction with the current Solar Radiation Storm conditions when assessing overall impact.

WARNING
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Publié: 29.01.2024 05.02 UTC
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Valid From: 2024 Jan 29 0500 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Jan 29 1800 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
Predicted NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

SUMMARY
10cm Radio Burst
Publié: 29.01.2024 05.00 UTC
10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2024 Jan 29 0408 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Jan 29 0420 UTC
End Time: 2024 Jan 29 0444 UTC
Duration: 36 minutes
Peak Flux: 2700 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 141 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

ALERT
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Publié: 29.01.2024 04.28 UTC
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2024 Jan 29 0427 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap.

ALERT
Type II Radio Emission
Publié: 28.01.2024 03.20 UTC
Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2024 Jan 28 0228 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 648 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

CANCEL WATCH
Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted
Publié: 27.01.2024 10.21 UTC
Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted
Cancel Serial Number: 985
Original Issue Time: 2024 Jan 24 1943 UTC

Comment: Conditions no longer meet watch criteria.

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

Table

Date Radio flux 10.7 cm SESC Le nombre des taches solaires Tache de la zone 10E-6 De nouvelles régions GOES15 X-ray Bkgd flux éclairs
X-ray Optique
C M X S 1 2 3
26th January 2024 157 97 860 1 * 6 0 0 4 0 0 0
27th January 2024 148 52 440 0 * 2 0 0 1 0 0 0
28th January 2024 141 75 440 2 * 6 0 0 3 0 0 0
29th January 2024 140 48 260 0 * 10 2 0 2 0 0 0
30th January 2024 135 53 280 3 * 11 0 0 2 0 0 0
31st January 2024 136 75 390 1 * 11 0 0 6 0 0 0
1st February 2024 137 113 510 5 * 9 0 0 5 0 0 0
2nd February 2024 143 131 490 1 * 7 1 0 0 1 0 0
3rd February 2024 156 123 770 1 * 15 0 0 6 0 0 0
4th February 2024 170 138 1320 0 * 12 7 0 8 0 0 0
5th February 2024 173 152 1065 2 * 11 2 0 9 2 0 0
6th February 2024 190 175 1020 0 * 5 3 0 11 1 0 0
7th February 2024 188 164 1210 1 * 6 2 0 3 2 0 0
8th February 2024 185 149 940 2 * 10 5 0 13 2 1 0
9th February 2024 183 105 910 0 * 8 2 1 7 1 0 0
10th February 2024 194 146 1030 3 * 12 3 0 5 1 0 0
11th February 2024 180 144 1090 0 * 7 1 0 5 0 0 0
12th February 2024 208 153 910 0 * 8 4 0 7 1 1 0
13th February 2024 195 122 1250 1 * 6 0 0 2 0 0 0
14th February 2024 184 123 1240 1 * 18 2 0 13 0 0 0
15th February 2024 178 151 1150 3 * 19 1 0 5 0 0 0
16th February 2024 169 97 600 0 * 6 2 1 2 1 0 0
17th February 2024 170 100 520 0 * 6 0 0 3 0 0 0
18th February 2024 157 84 690 1 * 8 0 0 1 0 0 0
19th February 2024 152 64 880 0 * 9 0 0 1 0 0 0
20th February 2024 153 50 870 0 * 2 0 0 1 0 0 0
21st February 2024 170 45 810 0 * 15 1 1 7 0 0 0
22nd February 2024 173 46 980 0 * 6 1 2 8 0 2 0
23rd February 2024 173 116 1410 4 * 6 3 0 1 2 0 0
24th February 2024 179 106 1710 0 * 11 4 0 0 0 0 0
Moyenne/Total 167 107 868 32 268 46 5 141 14 4 0

Graphique de synthèse

éclairs

Solar wind

Solar Wind

The solar wind is a stream of plasma released from the upper atmosphere of the Sun. It consists of mostly electrons, protons and alpha particles with energies usually between 1.5 and 10 keV. The stream of particles varies in density, temperature, and speed over time and over solar longitude. These particles can escape the Sun's gravity because of their high energy, from the high temperature of the corona and magnetic, electrical and electromagnetic phenomena in it.

The solar wind is divided into two components, respectively termed the slow solar wind and the fast solar wind. The slow solar wind has a velocity of about 400 km/s, a temperature of 1.4–1.6×10e6 K and a composition that is a close match to the corona. By contrast, the fast solar wind has a typical velocity of 750 km/s, a temperature of 8×10e5 K and it nearly matches the composition of the Sun's photosphere. The slow solar wind is twice as dense and more variable in intensity than the fast solar wind. The slow wind also has a more complex structure, with turbulent regions and large-scale structures.

Solar radio flux at 10.7 cm

Solar radio flux at 10.7 cm

The solar radio flux at 10.7 cm (2800 MHz) is an excellent indicator of solar activity. Often called the F10.7 index, it is one of the longest running records of solar activity. The F10.7 radio emissions originates high in the chromosphere and low in the corona of the solar atmosphere. The F10.7 correlates well with the sunspot number as well as a number of UltraViolet (UV) and visible solar irradiance records. Reported in “solar flux units”, (s.f.u.), the F10.7 can vary from below 50 s.f.u., to above 300 s.f.u., over the course of a solar cycle.

Flares

Flares

A solar flare is a sudden flash of brightness observed over the Sun's surface or the solar limb, which is interpreted as a large energy release of up to 6 × 10e25 joules of energy. They are often, but not always, followed by a colossal coronal mass ejection. The flare ejects clouds of electrons, ions, and atoms through the corona of the sun into space. These clouds typically reach Earth a day or two after the event.

Solar flares affect all layers of the solar atmosphere (photosphere, chromosphere, and corona), when the plasma medium is heated to tens of millions of kelvin, while the electrons, protons, and heavier ions are accelerated to near the speed of light. They produce radiation across the electromagnetic spectrum at all wavelengths, from radio waves to gamma rays, although most of the energy is spread over frequencies outside the visual range and for this reason the majority of the flares are not visible to the naked eye and must be observed with special instruments. Flares occur in active regions around sunspots, where intense magnetic fields penetrate the photosphere to link the corona to the solar interior. Flares are powered by the sudden (timescales of minutes to tens of minutes) release of magnetic energy stored in the corona. The same energy releases may produce coronal mass ejections (CME), although the relation between CMEs and flares is still not well established.

The frequency of occurrence of solar flares varies, from several per day when the Sun is particularly "active" to less than one every week when the Sun is "quiet", following the 11-year cycle (the solar cycle). Large flares are less frequent than smaller ones.

Classification

Solar flares are classified as A, B, C, M or X according to the peak flux (in watts per square metre, W/m2) of 100 to 800 picometre X-rays near Earth, as measured on the GOES spacecraft.

Classification Peak Flux Range at 100-800 picometer
W/m2
A < 10e-7
B 10e-7 to 10e-6
C 10e-6 to 10e-5
M 10e-5 to 10e-4
X 10e-4 to 10e-3
Z > 10e-3

An earlier flare classification is based on Hα spectral observations. The scheme uses both the intensity and emitting surface. The classification in intensity is qualitative, referring to the flares as: (f)aint, (n)ormal or (b)rilliant. The emitting surface is measured in terms of millionths of the hemisphere and is described below. (The total hemisphere area AH = 6.2 × 1012 km2.)

Classification Corrected area
(millionths of hemisphere)
S < 100
1 100 - 250
2 250 - 600
3 600 - 1200
4 > 1200

Sunspot number

Sunspots

Sunspots are temporary phenomena on the photosphere of the Sun that appear visibly as dark spots compared to surrounding regions. They correspond to concentrations of magnetic field that inhibit convection and result in reduced surface temperature compared to the surrounding photosphere. Sunspots usually appear in pairs, with pair members of opposite magnetic polarity. The number of sunspots varies according to the approximately 11-year solar cycle.

Sunspot populations quickly rise and more slowly fall on an irregular cycle of 11 years, although significant variations in the number of sunspots attending the 11-year period are known over longer spans of time. For example, from 1900 to the 1960s, the solar maxima trend of sunspot count has been upward; from the 1960s to the present, it has diminished somewhat. Over the last decades the Sun has had a markedly high average level of sunspot activity; it was last similarly active over 8,000 years ago.

The number of sunspots correlates with the intensity of solar radiation over the period since 1979, when satellite measurements of absolute radiative flux became available. Since sunspots are darker than the surrounding photosphere it might be expected that more sunspots would lead to less solar radiation and a decreased solar constant. However, the surrounding margins of sunspots are brighter than the average, and so are hotter; overall, more sunspots increase the Sun's solar constant or brightness. The variation caused by the sunspot cycle to solar output is relatively small, on the order of 0.1% of the solar constant (a peak-to-trough range of 1.3 W/m2 compared to 1366 W/m2 for the average solar constant).

K-indices



Aujourd’hui


0h
UTC
3h
UTC
6h
UTC
9h
UTC
12h
UTC
15h
UTC
18h
UTC
21h
UTC
1. 67 3. 00 3.



Data


Estimated Planetary

Estimated Planetary

Date A K-indices (UTC)
0h 3h 6h 9h 12h 15h 18h 21h
27th January 2024 5 2. 67 1. 33 1.
28th January 2024 8 1. 33 1. 00 2.
29th January 2024 9 3. 00 1. 67 1.
30th January 2024 8 2. 33 3. 00 2.
31st January 2024 6 2. 00 2. 33 1.
1st February 2024 5 1. 00 1. 33 2.
2nd February 2024 3 0. 67 0. 33 1.
3rd February 2024 3 0. 33 1. 33 1.
4th February 2024 6 0. 67 1. 33 1.
5th February 2024 7 0. 67 0. 67 2.
6th February 2024 8 3. 00 2. 33 1.
7th February 2024 4 0. 33 0. 67 1.
8th February 2024 5 1. 00 1. 00 1.
9th February 2024 6 1. 00 0. 33 1.
10th February 2024 5 1. 00 1. 33 1.
11th February 2024 15 4. 33 3. 33 3.
12th February 2024 4 1. 67 1. 33 2.
13th February 2024 10 1. 67 2. 33 1.
14th February 2024 7 3. 33 3. 00 1.
15th February 2024 4 1. 33 0. 67 1.
16th February 2024 4 1. 33 0. 67 0.
17th February 2024 4 1. 00 0. 67 0.
18th February 2024 6 3. 33 2. 00 1.
19th February 2024 3 1. 67 0. 33 0.
20th February 2024 6 1. 00 0. 33 2.
21st February 2024 4 1. 00 0. 33 0.
22nd February 2024 6 2. 00 2. 33 2.
23rd February 2024 3 0. 33 0. 33 0.
24th February 2024 7 1. 00 0. 67 0.
25th February 2024 10 1. 67 3. 00 3.

Middle Latitude

Date A K-indices
27th January 2024 4 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1
28th January 2024 5 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2
29th January 2024 7 2 1 1 1 3 2 2 2
30th January 2024 8 2 3 3 2 1 2 1 2
31st January 2024 7 2 2 1 1 2 3 2 1
1st February 2024 4 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 0
2nd February 2024 3 0 0 1 2 2 2 1 0
3rd February 2024 2 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0
4th February 2024 5 0 1 1 1 2 2 2 2
5th February 2024 6 1 1 2 1 2 2 2 2
6th February 2024 8 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 1
7th February 2024 3 0 0 1 1 2 1 1 1
8th February 2024 5 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 1
9th February 2024 4 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 3
10th February 2024 4 0 2 1 2 2 1 1 1
11th February 2024 12 4 3 3 3 2 2 1 2
12th February 2024 4 1 1 2 0 1 2 1 1
13th February 2024 8 1 2 1 2 3 3 2 2
14th February 2024 6 2 3 1 1 1 2 1 2
15th February 2024 3 1 0 0 1 1 2 2 1
16th February 2024 3 1 0 0 1 2 2 0 1
17th February 2024 4 1 1 0 0 2 2 1 2
18th February 2024 4 3 1 0 2 1 0 1 0
19th February 2024 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
20th February 2024 5 1 0 2 2 2 1 2 2
21st February 2024 3 0 1 1 1 2 1 1
22nd February 2024 6 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 2
23rd February 2024 2 0 0 1 1 2 0 1 1
24th February 2024 6 1 0 0 1 3 2 2 3
25th February 2024 2 3 3

High Latitude

Date A K-indices
27th January 2024 4 1 1 3 2 1 0 0 0
28th January 2024 6 0 0 1 4 2 1 1 2
29th January 2024 5 1 2 1 1 3 1 0 1
30th January 2024 7 1 2 3 3 2 1 1 1
31st January 2024 4 0 1 1 3 1 1 1 0
1st February 2024 6 0 0 1 4 3 1 1 0
2nd February 2024 2 0 0 1 2 1 0 0 0
3rd February 2024 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
4th February 2024 2 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 2
5th February 2024 4 0 0 1 1 3 1 1 1
6th February 2024 6 1 1 0 4 2 1 1 0
7th February 2024 3 0 0 1 1 3 1 0 0
8th February 2024 5 0 0 1 3 3 2 1 0
9th February 2024 2 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 1
10th February 2024 2 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 0
11th February 2024 15 2 3 4 5 2 2 1 1
12th February 2024 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
13th February 2024 17 1 1 0 4 5 5 2 1
14th February 2024 3 2 2 1 2 1 0 0 0
15th February 2024 2 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 0
16th February 2024 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0
17th February 2024 3 1 0 0 2 2 0 0 1
18th February 2024 6 2 1 1 4 2 0 0 0
19th February 2024 1 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0
20th February 2024 12 0 0 3 4 4 4 0 1
21st February 2024 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0
22nd February 2024 3 0 1 1 2 2 1 0 0
23rd February 2024 1 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 0
24th February 2024 5 0 0 0 2 4 1 1 1
25th February 2024 1 4 4

About

The K-index quantifies disturbances in the horizontal component of earth's magnetic field with an integer in the range 0–9 with 1 being calm and 5 or more indicating a geomagnetic storm. It is derived from the maximum fluctuations of horizontal components observed on a magnetometer during a three-hour interval. The label K comes from the German word Kennziffer meaning “characteristic digit”. The K-index was introduced by Julius Bartels in 1938.

The Estimated 3-hour Planetary Kp-index is derived at the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center using data from the following ground-based magnetometers:

  • Sitka, Alaska
  • Meanook, Canada
  • Ottawa, Canada
  • Fredericksburg, Virginia
  • Hartland, UK
  • Wingst, Germany
  • Niemegk, Germany
  • Canberra, Australia

These data are made available thanks to the cooperative efforts between SWPC and data providers around the world, which currently includes the U.S. Geological Survey, Natural Resources Canada (NRCAN), the British Geological Survey, the German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ), and Geoscience Australia. Important magnetometer observations are also contributed by the Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris and the Korean Space Weather Center K-index Watches are issued when the highest predicted NOAA estimated Kp-indices for a day are K = 5, 6, 7, or >= 8 and is reported in terms of the NOAA G scale. K-index Warnings are issued when NOAA estimated Kp-indices of 4, 5, 6, and 7 or greater are expected. K-index Alerts are issued when the NOAA estimated Kp-indices reach 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, or 9.


More info
Source de données: NOAA, Wikipedia

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