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ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Issued: 04.06.2023 21.02 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2023 Jun 04 2059 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1800-2100 UTC

Active Warning: Yes

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: 04.06.2023 19.06 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2023 Jun 04 1905 UTC
Valid To: 2023 Jun 05 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WATCH
Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted
Issued: 02.06.2023 19.46 UTC
Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted

Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Jun 03: G1 (Minor) Jun 04: None (Below G1) Jun 05: None (Below G1)

THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Publié: 01.06.2023 08.53 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4392
Valid From: 2023 Jun 01 0116 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2023 Jun 01 1500 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Publié: 01.06.2023 02.47 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2023 Jun 01 0245 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC

Active Warning: Yes

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Publié: 01.06.2023 01.15 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2023 Jun 01 0116 UTC
Valid To: 2023 Jun 01 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WATCH
Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted
Publié: 30.05.2023 20.47 UTC
Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted

Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
May 31: None (Below G1) Jun 01: None (Below G1) Jun 02: G1 (Minor)

THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

SUMMARY
10cm Radio Burst
Publié: 30.05.2023 11.09 UTC
10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2023 May 30 1020 UTC
Maximum Time: 2023 May 30 1020 UTC
End Time: 2023 May 30 1020 UTC
Duration: 1 minutes
Peak Flux: 210 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 154 sfu

Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

CONTINUED ALERT
Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Publié: 28.05.2023 05.31 UTC
Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 3337
Begin Time: 2023 May 22 1545 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 4253 pfu

Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

ALERT
Type II Radio Emission
Publié: 27.05.2023 20.27 UTC
Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2023 May 27 1927 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 470 km/s

Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

CONTINUED ALERT
Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Publié: 27.05.2023 04.59 UTC
Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 3336
Begin Time: 2023 May 22 1545 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 4078 pfu

Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

ALERT
Type II Radio Emission
Publié: 27.05.2023 04.55 UTC
Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2023 May 27 0436 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 544 km/s

Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

CONTINUED ALERT
Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Publié: 26.05.2023 04.59 UTC
Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 3335
Begin Time: 2023 May 22 1545 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 3826 pfu

Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Publié: 25.05.2023 20.57 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4390
Valid From: 2023 May 25 0200 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2023 May 26 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Publié: 25.05.2023 14.56 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4389
Valid From: 2023 May 25 0200 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2023 May 25 2100 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Publié: 25.05.2023 08.32 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4388
Valid From: 2023 May 25 0200 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2023 May 25 1500 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

CONTINUED ALERT
Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Publié: 25.05.2023 07.16 UTC
Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 3334
Begin Time: 2023 May 22 1545 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 2694 pfu

Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Publié: 25.05.2023 02.00 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2023 May 25 0200 UTC
Valid To: 2023 May 25 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

CONTINUED ALERT
Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Publié: 24.05.2023 05.06 UTC
Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 3333
Begin Time: 2023 May 22 1545 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 1402 pfu

Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Publié: 24.05.2023 02.55 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4386
Valid From: 2023 May 23 2220 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2023 May 24 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Publié: 23.05.2023 22.59 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2023 May 23 2258 UTC
Synoptic Period: 2100-2400 UTC

Active Warning: Yes

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Publié: 23.05.2023 22.19 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2023 May 23 2220 UTC
Valid To: 2023 May 24 0300 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

CONTINUED ALERT
Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Publié: 23.05.2023 13.28 UTC
Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 3332
Begin Time: 2023 May 22 1545 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 1267 pfu

Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

ALERT
Type IV Radio Emission
Publié: 23.05.2023 13.09 UTC
Type IV Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2023 May 23 1120 UTC

Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Publié: 22.05.2023 23.27 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2023 May 22 2325 UTC
Valid To: 2023 May 23 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Publié: 22.05.2023 23.27 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4384
Valid From: 2023 May 22 1937 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2023 May 23 1500 UTC
Warning Condition: persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Publié: 22.05.2023 20.49 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2023 May 22 2042 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1800-2100 UTC

Active Warning: Yes

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Publié: 22.05.2023 19.39 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2023 May 22 1937 UTC
Valid To: 2023 May 23 0300 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

ALERT
Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Publié: 22.05.2023 15.57 UTC
Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Threshold Reached: 2023 May 22 1545 UTC
Station: GOES16


Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

ALERT
Type II Radio Emission
Publié: 22.05.2023 14.00 UTC
Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2023 May 22 1340 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 439 km/s

Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

WATCH
Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted
Publié: 22.05.2023 11.53 UTC
Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted

Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
May 23: G1 (Minor) May 24: G1 (Minor) May 25: None (Below G1)

THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Publié: 22.05.2023 02.31 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2023 May 22 0230 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Publié: 22.05.2023 00.01 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Threshold Reached: 2023 May 21 2358 UTC
Synoptic Period: 2100-0000 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

WATCH
Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted
Publié: 21.05.2023 22.05 UTC
Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted

Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
May 22: G2 (Moderate) May 23: G1 (Minor) May 24: G1 (Minor)

THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Publié: 21.05.2023 21.36 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2023 May 21 2136 UTC
Synoptic Period: 2100-2400 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Publié: 21.05.2023 21.05 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Threshold Reached: 2023 May 21 2059 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1800-2100 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Publié: 21.05.2023 20.44 UTC
Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Valid From: 2023 May 21 2045 UTC
Valid To: 2023 May 22 0300 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Publié: 21.05.2023 20.38 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2023 May 21 2037 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1800-2100 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Publié: 21.05.2023 20.32 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2023 May 21 2033 UTC
Valid To: 2023 May 22 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Publié: 21.05.2023 20.30 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4382
Valid From: 2023 May 21 1600 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2023 May 22 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Publié: 21.05.2023 16.10 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2023 May 21 1610 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1500-1800 UTC

Active Warning: Yes

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Publié: 21.05.2023 15.59 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2023 May 21 1600 UTC
Valid To: 2023 May 21 2100 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

SUMMARY
X-ray Event exceeded M5
Publié: 20.05.2023 23.38 UTC
X-ray Event exceeded M5
Begin Time: 2023 May 20 2252 UTC
Maximum Time: 2023 May 20 2306 UTC
End Time: 2023 May 20 2321 UTC
X-ray Class: M5.1
Optical Class: 2b
Location: N16E48
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered primarily on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth.
Radio - Limited blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for tens of minutes.

SUMMARY
10cm Radio Burst
Publié: 20.05.2023 23.22 UTC
10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2023 May 20 2302 UTC
Maximum Time: 2023 May 20 2303 UTC
End Time: 2023 May 20 2304 UTC
Duration: 2 minutes
Peak Flux: 170 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 170 sfu

Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

ALERT
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Publié: 20.05.2023 23.10 UTC
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2023 May 20 2305 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap.

WATCH
Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted
Publié: 20.05.2023 22.11 UTC
Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted

Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
May 21: None (Below G1) May 22: None (Below G1) May 23: G1 (Minor)

THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Publié: 20.05.2023 17.55 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4380
Valid From: 2023 May 19 2000 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2023 May 21 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

SUMMARY
X-ray Event exceeded M5
Publié: 20.05.2023 15.21 UTC
X-ray Event exceeded M5
Begin Time: 2023 May 20 1454 UTC
Maximum Time: 2023 May 20 1500 UTC
End Time: 2023 May 20 1504 UTC
X-ray Class: M5.6
Location: N18E53
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered primarily on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth.
Radio - Limited blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for tens of minutes.

ALERT
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Publié: 20.05.2023 15.01 UTC
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2023 May 20 1456 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap.

SUMMARY
X-ray Event exceeded M5
Publié: 20.05.2023 13.00 UTC
X-ray Event exceeded M5
Begin Time: 2023 May 20 1225 UTC
Maximum Time: 2023 May 20 1235 UTC
End Time: 2023 May 20 1240 UTC
X-ray Class: M8.9
Location: N18E54
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered primarily on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth.
Radio - Limited blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for tens of minutes.

ALERT
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Publié: 20.05.2023 12.37 UTC
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2023 May 20 1234 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Publié: 20.05.2023 08.58 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4379
Valid From: 2023 May 19 2000 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2023 May 20 1800 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Publié: 20.05.2023 08.55 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 1776
Valid From: 2023 May 20 0100 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2023 May 20 1500 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

SUMMARY
X-ray Event exceeded M5
Publié: 20.05.2023 08.21 UTC
X-ray Event exceeded M5
Begin Time: 2023 May 20 0716 UTC
Maximum Time: 2023 May 20 0732 UTC
End Time: 2023 May 20 0736 UTC
X-ray Class: M6.4
Location: N18E56
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered primarily on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth.
Radio - Limited blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for tens of minutes.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Publié: 20.05.2023 08.09 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2023 May 20 0805 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0600-0900 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

SUMMARY
10cm Radio Burst
Publié: 20.05.2023 07.45 UTC
10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2023 May 20 0731 UTC
Maximum Time: 2023 May 20 0731 UTC
End Time: 2023 May 20 0732 UTC
Duration: 1 minutes
Peak Flux: 170 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 165 sfu

Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

ALERT
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Publié: 20.05.2023 07.34 UTC
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2023 May 20 0730 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Publié: 20.05.2023 05.54 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Threshold Reached: 2023 May 20 0553 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0300-0600 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Publié: 20.05.2023 04.23 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2023 May 20 0420 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0300-0600 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Publié: 20.05.2023 03.01 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Threshold Reached: 2023 May 20 0259 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Publié: 20.05.2023 03.00 UTC
Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Valid From: 2023 May 20 0259 UTC
Valid To: 2023 May 20 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Publié: 20.05.2023 01.50 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2023 May 20 0150 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Publié: 20.05.2023 00.46 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2023 May 20 0100 UTC
Valid To: 2023 May 20 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Publié: 19.05.2023 23.51 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4378
Valid From: 2023 May 19 2000 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2023 May 20 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Publié: 19.05.2023 23.29 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2023 May 19 2324 UTC
Synoptic Period: 2100-2400 UTC

Active Warning: Yes

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Publié: 19.05.2023 19.59 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2023 May 19 2000 UTC
Valid To: 2023 May 20 0000 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

SUMMARY
X-ray Event exceeded M5
Publié: 19.05.2023 01.23 UTC
X-ray Event exceeded M5
Begin Time: 2023 May 19 0041 UTC
Maximum Time: 2023 May 19 0048 UTC
End Time: 2023 May 19 0054 UTC
X-ray Class: M5.3
Location: N18E76
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered primarily on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth.
Radio - Limited blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for tens of minutes.

ALERT
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Publié: 19.05.2023 00.52 UTC
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2023 May 19 0048 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap.

ALERT
Type II Radio Emission
Publié: 17.05.2023 15.46 UTC
Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2023 May 17 1522 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 343 km/s

Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

ALERT
Type II Radio Emission
Publié: 16.05.2023 17.55 UTC
Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2023 May 16 1731 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 886 km/s

Comment: Associated with an M9.6 flare from just behind the SE limb

Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

SUMMARY
X-ray Event exceeded M5
Publié: 16.05.2023 16.57 UTC
X-ray Event exceeded M5
Begin Time: 2023 May 16 1631 UTC
Maximum Time: 2023 May 16 1643 UTC
End Time: 2023 May 16 1651 UTC
X-ray Class: M9.6
Location: S23E95
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Comment: Flare location is just beyond the SE limb and estimated.

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered primarily on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth.
Radio - Limited blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for tens of minutes.

ALERT
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Publié: 16.05.2023 16.42 UTC
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2023 May 16 1640 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Publié: 13.05.2023 23.50 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4376
Valid From: 2023 May 13 1920 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2023 May 14 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Publié: 13.05.2023 20.55 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2023 May 13 2055 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1800-2100 UTC

Active Warning: Yes

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Publié: 13.05.2023 19.20 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2023 May 13 1920 UTC
Valid To: 2023 May 13 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Publié: 12.05.2023 14.51 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4374
Valid From: 2023 May 12 0545 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2023 May 13 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Publié: 12.05.2023 14.45 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2023 May 12 1445 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1200-1500 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Publié: 12.05.2023 14.42 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2023 May 12 1440 UTC
Valid To: 2023 May 12 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

SUMMARY
Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Publié: 12.05.2023 06.40 UTC
Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Observed: 2023 May 12 0635 UTC
Deviation: 34 nT
Station: OTT

WARNING
Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
Publié: 12.05.2023 06.09 UTC
Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
Valid From: 2023 May 12 0620 UTC
Valid To: 2023 May 12 0720 UTC
IP Shock Passage Observed: 2023 May 12 0550 UTC

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Publié: 12.05.2023 06.01 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2023 May 12 0559 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0300-0600 UTC

Active Warning: Yes

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Publié: 12.05.2023 05.49 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2023 May 12 0545 UTC
Valid To: 2023 May 12 1800 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

SUMMARY
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 10pfu
Publié: 12.05.2023 02.20 UTC
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 10pfu
Begin Time: 2023 May 09 2335 UTC
Maximum Time: 2023 May 10 1325 UTC
End Time: 2023 May 11 0405 UTC
Maximum 10MeV Flux: 80 pfu
NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor

SUMMARY
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 10pfu
Publié: 12.05.2023 00.22 UTC
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 10pfu
Begin Time: 2023 May 09 2335 UTC
Maximum Time: 2023 May 10 1325 UTC
End Time: 2023 May 11 0405 UTC
Maximum 10MeV Flux: 8 pfu
NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor

SUMMARY
10cm Radio Burst
Publié: 11.05.2023 20.44 UTC
10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2023 May 11 1824 UTC
Maximum Time: 2023 May 11 1827 UTC
End Time: 2023 May 11 1828 UTC
Duration: 4 minutes
Peak Flux: 180 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 163 sfu

Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

ALERT
Type IV Radio Emission
Publié: 11.05.2023 20.41 UTC
Type IV Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2023 May 11 1844 UTC

Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.

ALERT
Type II Radio Emission
Publié: 11.05.2023 20.22 UTC
Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2023 May 11 1832 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 356 km/s

Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

EXTENDED WARNING
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Publié: 11.05.2023 11.41 UTC
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Extension to Serial Number: 506
Valid From: 2023 May 09 2300 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2023 May 11 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
Predicted NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor

Comment: 10 MeV flux levels are still elevated but below the S1 threshold. Potential still exists for the S1 threshold to be exceeded

Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

ALERT
Type II Radio Emission
Publié: 11.05.2023 09.10 UTC
Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2023 May 11 0857 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 419 km/s

Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

ALERT
Type IV Radio Emission
Publié: 11.05.2023 01.44 UTC
Type IV Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2023 May 11 0105 UTC

Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.

ALERT
Type II Radio Emission
Publié: 11.05.2023 01.38 UTC
Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2023 May 11 0106 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 837 km/s

Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

EXTENDED WARNING
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Publié: 10.05.2023 23.52 UTC
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Extension to Serial Number: 505
Valid From: 2023 May 09 2300 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2023 May 11 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
Predicted NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Publié: 10.05.2023 20.52 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4372
Valid From: 2023 May 09 2230 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2023 May 11 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WATCH
Geomagnetic Storm Category G3 Predicted
Publié: 10.05.2023 16.44 UTC
Geomagnetic Storm Category G3 Predicted

Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
May 10: G2 (Moderate) May 11: G3 (Strong) May 12: G2 (Moderate)

THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation - Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Publié: 10.05.2023 13.24 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2023 May 10 1323 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1200-1500 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

EXTENDED WARNING
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Publié: 10.05.2023 11.06 UTC
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Extension to Serial Number: 504
Valid From: 2023 May 09 2300 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2023 May 10 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
Predicted NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Publié: 10.05.2023 08.47 UTC
Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 483
Valid From: 2023 May 10 0331 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2023 May 10 1500 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Publié: 10.05.2023 08.30 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4371
Valid From: 2023 May 09 2230 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2023 May 10 2100 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Publié: 10.05.2023 08.29 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 1773
Valid From: 2023 May 09 2240 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2023 May 10 1800 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Publié: 10.05.2023 03.31 UTC
Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Valid From: 2023 May 10 0331 UTC
Valid To: 2023 May 10 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Publié: 10.05.2023 03.25 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2023 May 10 0317 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0300-0600 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Publié: 10.05.2023 02.56 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 1772
Valid From: 2023 May 09 2240 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2023 May 10 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Publié: 10.05.2023 02.56 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4370
Valid From: 2023 May 09 2230 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2023 May 10 1500 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Publié: 10.05.2023 00.00 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2023 May 09 2359 UTC
Synoptic Period: 2100-0000 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

ALERT
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 10pfu
Publié: 09.05.2023 23.22 UTC
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 10pfu
Begin Time: 2023 May 09 2322 UTC
NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

SUMMARY
Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Publié: 09.05.2023 23.10 UTC
Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Observed: 2023 May 09 2248 UTC
Deviation: 54 nT
Station: frd

WARNING
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Publié: 09.05.2023 23.01 UTC
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Valid From: 2023 May 09 2300 UTC
Valid To: 2023 May 10 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
Predicted NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Publié: 09.05.2023 22.56 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2023 May 09 2256 UTC
Synoptic Period: 2100-2400 UTC

Active Warning: Yes

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Publié: 09.05.2023 22.41 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2023 May 09 2240 UTC
Valid To: 2023 May 10 0300 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Publié: 09.05.2023 22.41 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4369
Valid From: 2023 May 09 2230 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2023 May 10 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Publié: 09.05.2023 22.30 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2023 May 09 2230 UTC
Valid To: 2023 May 10 0300 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WARNING
Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
Publié: 09.05.2023 22.27 UTC
Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
Valid From: 2023 May 09 2230 UTC
Valid To: 2023 May 09 2330 UTC
IP Shock Passage Observed: 2023 May 09 2210 UTC

SUMMARY
10cm Radio Burst
Publié: 09.05.2023 21.07 UTC
10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2023 May 09 2045 UTC
Maximum Time: 2023 May 09 2047 UTC
End Time: 2023 May 09 2048 UTC
Duration: 3 minutes
Peak Flux: 180 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 180 sfu

Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

ALERT
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Publié: 09.05.2023 20.55 UTC
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2023 May 09 2051 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap.

WATCH
Geomagnetic Storm Category G2 Predicted
Publié: 09.05.2023 19.55 UTC
Geomagnetic Storm Category G2 Predicted

Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
May 10: G2 (Moderate) May 11: G1 (Minor) May 12: None (Below G1)

THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

SUMMARY
10cm Radio Burst
Publié: 09.05.2023 19.46 UTC
10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2023 May 09 1834 UTC
Maximum Time: 2023 May 09 1852 UTC
End Time: 2023 May 09 1921 UTC
Duration: 47 minutes
Peak Flux: 1300 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 172 sfu

Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

ALERT
Type II Radio Emission
Publié: 09.05.2023 19.32 UTC
Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2023 May 09 1840 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 1892 km/s

Comment: Estimated velocity is likely too fast.

Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

ALERT
Type IV Radio Emission
Publié: 09.05.2023 19.21 UTC
Type IV Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2023 May 09 1837 UTC

Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.

SUMMARY
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 10pfu
Publié: 09.05.2023 16.16 UTC
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 10pfu
Begin Time: 2023 May 08 1240 UTC
Maximum Time: 2023 May 09 0150 UTC
End Time: 2023 May 09 1235 UTC
Maximum 10MeV Flux: 38 pfu
NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor

CANCEL WARNING
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Publié: 09.05.2023 16.11 UTC
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Cancel Serial Number: 502
Original Issue Time: 2023 May 08 1127 UTC

Comment: 10MeV proton levels have dropped below 10pfu and remain consistently under 10pfu.

Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

SUMMARY
10cm Radio Burst
Publié: 09.05.2023 07.10 UTC
10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2023 May 09 0610 UTC
Maximum Time: 2023 May 09 0611 UTC
End Time: 2023 May 09 0625 UTC
Duration: 14 minutes
Peak Flux: 210 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 172 sfu

Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

ALERT
Type IV Radio Emission
Publié: 09.05.2023 06.53 UTC
Type IV Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2023 May 09 0622 UTC

Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.

ALERT
Type II Radio Emission
Publié: 09.05.2023 04.35 UTC
Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2023 May 09 0353 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 641 km/s

Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

SUMMARY
10cm Radio Burst
Publié: 09.05.2023 04.20 UTC
10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2023 May 09 0348 UTC
Maximum Time: 2023 May 09 0351 UTC
End Time: 2023 May 09 0354 UTC
Duration: 6 minutes
Peak Flux: 360 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 172 sfu

Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

SUMMARY
X-ray Event exceeded M5
Publié: 09.05.2023 04.10 UTC
X-ray Event exceeded M5
Begin Time: 2023 May 09 0342 UTC
Maximum Time: 2023 May 09 0354 UTC
End Time: 2023 May 09 0405 UTC
X-ray Class: M6.5
Optical Class: 1n
Location: N12W13
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered primarily on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth.
Radio - Limited blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for tens of minutes.

ALERT
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Publié: 09.05.2023 03.56 UTC
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2023 May 09 0353 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Publié: 09.05.2023 02.49 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4367
Valid From: 2023 May 08 1406 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2023 May 09 1500 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

ALERT
Type II Radio Emission
Publié: 09.05.2023 00.44 UTC
Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2023 May 09 0017 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 1399 km/s

Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

EXTENDED WARNING
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Publié: 08.05.2023 23.44 UTC
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Extension to Serial Number: 501
Valid From: 2023 May 08 1127 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2023 May 09 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
Predicted NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Publié: 08.05.2023 20.17 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4366
Valid From: 2023 May 08 1406 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2023 May 09 0300 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WATCH
Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted
Publié: 08.05.2023 20.00 UTC
Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted

Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
May 09: G1 (Minor) May 10: G1 (Minor) May 11: G1 (Minor)

THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Publié: 08.05.2023 18.00 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2023 May 08 1759 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1500-1800 UTC

Active Warning: Yes

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Publié: 08.05.2023 14.06 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2023 May 08 1406 UTC
Valid To: 2023 May 08 2100 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

ALERT
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 10pfu
Publié: 08.05.2023 12.57 UTC
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 10pfu
Begin Time: 2023 May 08 1240 UTC
NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

WARNING
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Publié: 08.05.2023 11.27 UTC
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Valid From: 2023 May 08 1127 UTC
Valid To: 2023 May 08 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
Predicted NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

ALERT
Type II Radio Emission
Publié: 08.05.2023 09.58 UTC
Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2023 May 08 0826 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 797 km/s

Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Publié: 08.05.2023 02.21 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2023 May 08 0218 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Publié: 07.05.2023 16.06 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2023 May 07 1605 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1500-1800 UTC

Active Warning: Yes

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Publié: 07.05.2023 16.00 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2023 May 07 1600 UTC
Valid To: 2023 May 08 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Publié: 07.05.2023 16.00 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2023 May 07 1600 UTC
Valid To: 2023 May 08 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

SUMMARY
Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Publié: 07.05.2023 15.56 UTC
Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Observed: 2023 May 07 1544 UTC
Deviation: 13 nT
Station: FRD

WARNING
Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
Publié: 07.05.2023 15.16 UTC
Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
Valid From: 2023 May 07 1530 UTC
Valid To: 2023 May 07 1615 UTC
IP Shock Passage Observed: 2023 May 07 1455 UTC

WATCH
Geomagnetic Storm Category G3 Predicted
Publié: 06.05.2023 15.57 UTC
Geomagnetic Storm Category G3 Predicted

Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
May 07: G2 (Moderate) May 08: G3 (Strong) May 09: G1 (Minor)

THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation - Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Publié: 06.05.2023 14.23 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 1769
Valid From: 2023 May 06 0220 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2023 May 06 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Publié: 06.05.2023 14.23 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4363
Valid From: 2023 May 06 0150 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2023 May 07 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Publié: 06.05.2023 04.53 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Threshold Reached: 2023 May 06 0450 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0300-0600 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Publié: 06.05.2023 04.48 UTC
Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Valid From: 2023 May 06 0440 UTC
Valid To: 2023 May 06 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Publié: 06.05.2023 04.12 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2023 May 06 0409 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0300-0600 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Publié: 06.05.2023 02.56 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2023 May 06 0253 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Publié: 06.05.2023 02.21 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2023 May 06 0220 UTC
Valid To: 2023 May 06 1500 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Publié: 06.05.2023 02.14 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2023 May 06 0210 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC

Active Warning: Yes

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Publié: 06.05.2023 01.49 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2023 May 06 0150 UTC
Valid To: 2023 May 06 1500 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

ALERT
Type IV Radio Emission
Publié: 06.05.2023 01.14 UTC
Type IV Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2023 May 06 0100 UTC

Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.

ALERT
Type II Radio Emission
Publié: 06.05.2023 01.14 UTC
Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2023 May 06 0042 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 863 km/s

Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

Table

Date Radio flux 10.7 cm SESC Le nombre des taches solaires Tache de la zone 10E-6 De nouvelles régions GOES15 X-ray Bkgd flux éclairs
X-ray Optique
C M X S 1 2 3
5th May 2023 162 90 1020 0 * 4 2 0 2 1 0 0
6th May 2023 152 99 1050 0 * 7 0 0 4 0 0 0
7th May 2023 157 99 1050 0 * 5 2 0 2 0 0 0
8th May 2023 172 103 1040 0 * 10 1 0 6 1 1 0
9th May 2023 180 151 1180 4 * 11 5 0 10 4 0 0
10th May 2023 170 154 1060 0 * 10 1 0 9 1 0 0
11th May 2023 163 152 990 1 * 8 2 0 7 3 0 0
12th May 2023 149 134 820 1 * 10 0 0 13 0 0 0
13th May 2023 144 120 750 0 * 9 0 0 0 0 0 0
14th May 2023 140 109 380 1 * 4 0 0 3 0 0 0
15th May 2023 135 103 330 1 * 3 0 0 0 0 0 0
16th May 2023 134 106 220 1 * 10 1 0 0 0 0 0
17th May 2023 138 106 470 2 * 10 0 0 2 0 0 0
18th May 2023 151 121 575 1 * 6 7 0 3 0 0 0
19th May 2023 165 155 1100 2 * 15 5 0 36 3 0 0
20th May 2023 170 138 1150 1 * 19 8 0 5 2 0 0
21st May 2023 163 140 1110 0 * 11 2 0 13 2 1 0
22nd May 2023 162 97 930 0 * 9 2 0 16 3 0 0
23rd May 2023 155 130 820 1 * 12 1 0 19 1 0 0
24th May 2023 164 153 1360 0 * 10 3 0 25 1 0 0
25th May 2023 152 121 1120 0 * 16 1 0 22 2 0 0
26th May 2023 149 127 1200 1 * 11 0 0 13 0 0 0
27th May 2023 157 125 1320 0 * 8 0 0 22 0 0 0
28th May 2023 151 119 1540 0 * 9 1 0 5 1 0 0
29th May 2023 154 153 1320 4 * 4 0 0 10 0 0 0
30th May 2023 162 144 990 2 * 4 3 0 3 1 0 0
31st May 2023 161 147 1590 1 * 16 3 0 10 0 0 0
1st June 2023 164 143 1160 0 * 9 0 0 23 0 0 0
2nd June 2023 162 147 1070 3 * 4 1 0 9 0 0 0
3rd June 2023 165 112 880 0 * 9 0 0 7 0 0 0
Moyenne/Total 157 127 987 27 273 51 0 299 26 2 0

Graphique de synthèse

éclairs

Solar wind

Solar Wind

The solar wind is a stream of plasma released from the upper atmosphere of the Sun. It consists of mostly electrons, protons and alpha particles with energies usually between 1.5 and 10 keV. The stream of particles varies in density, temperature, and speed over time and over solar longitude. These particles can escape the Sun's gravity because of their high energy, from the high temperature of the corona and magnetic, electrical and electromagnetic phenomena in it.

The solar wind is divided into two components, respectively termed the slow solar wind and the fast solar wind. The slow solar wind has a velocity of about 400 km/s, a temperature of 1.4–1.6×10e6 K and a composition that is a close match to the corona. By contrast, the fast solar wind has a typical velocity of 750 km/s, a temperature of 8×10e5 K and it nearly matches the composition of the Sun's photosphere. The slow solar wind is twice as dense and more variable in intensity than the fast solar wind. The slow wind also has a more complex structure, with turbulent regions and large-scale structures.

Solar radio flux at 10.7 cm

Solar radio flux at 10.7 cm

The solar radio flux at 10.7 cm (2800 MHz) is an excellent indicator of solar activity. Often called the F10.7 index, it is one of the longest running records of solar activity. The F10.7 radio emissions originates high in the chromosphere and low in the corona of the solar atmosphere. The F10.7 correlates well with the sunspot number as well as a number of UltraViolet (UV) and visible solar irradiance records. Reported in “solar flux units”, (s.f.u.), the F10.7 can vary from below 50 s.f.u., to above 300 s.f.u., over the course of a solar cycle.

Flares

Flares

A solar flare is a sudden flash of brightness observed over the Sun's surface or the solar limb, which is interpreted as a large energy release of up to 6 × 10e25 joules of energy. They are often, but not always, followed by a colossal coronal mass ejection. The flare ejects clouds of electrons, ions, and atoms through the corona of the sun into space. These clouds typically reach Earth a day or two after the event.

Solar flares affect all layers of the solar atmosphere (photosphere, chromosphere, and corona), when the plasma medium is heated to tens of millions of kelvin, while the electrons, protons, and heavier ions are accelerated to near the speed of light. They produce radiation across the electromagnetic spectrum at all wavelengths, from radio waves to gamma rays, although most of the energy is spread over frequencies outside the visual range and for this reason the majority of the flares are not visible to the naked eye and must be observed with special instruments. Flares occur in active regions around sunspots, where intense magnetic fields penetrate the photosphere to link the corona to the solar interior. Flares are powered by the sudden (timescales of minutes to tens of minutes) release of magnetic energy stored in the corona. The same energy releases may produce coronal mass ejections (CME), although the relation between CMEs and flares is still not well established.

The frequency of occurrence of solar flares varies, from several per day when the Sun is particularly "active" to less than one every week when the Sun is "quiet", following the 11-year cycle (the solar cycle). Large flares are less frequent than smaller ones.

Classification

Solar flares are classified as A, B, C, M or X according to the peak flux (in watts per square metre, W/m2) of 100 to 800 picometre X-rays near Earth, as measured on the GOES spacecraft.

Classification Peak Flux Range at 100-800 picometer
W/m2
A < 10e-7
B 10e-7 to 10e-6
C 10e-6 to 10e-5
M 10e-5 to 10e-4
X 10e-4 to 10e-3
Z > 10e-3

An earlier flare classification is based on Hα spectral observations. The scheme uses both the intensity and emitting surface. The classification in intensity is qualitative, referring to the flares as: (f)aint, (n)ormal or (b)rilliant. The emitting surface is measured in terms of millionths of the hemisphere and is described below. (The total hemisphere area AH = 6.2 × 1012 km2.)

Classification Corrected area
(millionths of hemisphere)
S < 100
1 100 - 250
2 250 - 600
3 600 - 1200
4 > 1200

Sunspot number

Sunspots

Sunspots are temporary phenomena on the photosphere of the Sun that appear visibly as dark spots compared to surrounding regions. They correspond to concentrations of magnetic field that inhibit convection and result in reduced surface temperature compared to the surrounding photosphere. Sunspots usually appear in pairs, with pair members of opposite magnetic polarity. The number of sunspots varies according to the approximately 11-year solar cycle.

Sunspot populations quickly rise and more slowly fall on an irregular cycle of 11 years, although significant variations in the number of sunspots attending the 11-year period are known over longer spans of time. For example, from 1900 to the 1960s, the solar maxima trend of sunspot count has been upward; from the 1960s to the present, it has diminished somewhat. Over the last decades the Sun has had a markedly high average level of sunspot activity; it was last similarly active over 8,000 years ago.

The number of sunspots correlates with the intensity of solar radiation over the period since 1979, when satellite measurements of absolute radiative flux became available. Since sunspots are darker than the surrounding photosphere it might be expected that more sunspots would lead to less solar radiation and a decreased solar constant. However, the surrounding margins of sunspots are brighter than the average, and so are hotter; overall, more sunspots increase the Sun's solar constant or brightness. The variation caused by the sunspot cycle to solar output is relatively small, on the order of 0.1% of the solar constant (a peak-to-trough range of 1.3 W/m2 compared to 1366 W/m2 for the average solar constant).

K-indices



Aujourd’hui


0h
UTC
3h
UTC
6h
UTC
9h
UTC
12h
UTC
15h
UTC
18h
UTC
21h
UTC
2. 33 1. 67 2.



Data


Estimated Planetary

Estimated Planetary

Date A K-indices (UTC)
0h 3h 6h 9h 12h 15h 18h 21h
6th May 2023 30 4. 67 6. 00 3.
7th May 2023 9 1. 33 2. 00 2.
8th May 2023 16 4. 67 2. 00 2.
9th May 2023 14 3. 67 3. 00 1.
10th May 2023 26 4. 33 5. 33 2.
11th May 2023 9 3. 00 3. 00 2.
12th May 2023 19 2. 33 3. 67 3.
13th May 2023 13 2. 67 2. 00 2.
14th May 2023 8 1. 33 2. 00 1.
15th May 2023 6 1. 00 1. 00 1.
16th May 2023 8 2. 67 2. 33 3.
17th May 2023 4 1. 33 1. 33 0.
18th May 2023 3 0. 67 1. 33 0.
19th May 2023 9 0. 67 0. 33 1.
20th May 2023 35 5. 67 5. 67 4.
21st May 2023 28 2. 67 2. 67 2.
22nd May 2023 21 4. 67 3. 33 3.
23rd May 2023 12 2. 67 3. 00 3.
24th May 2023 12 2. 67 3. 00 1.
25th May 2023 11 3. 00 2. 67 3.
26th May 2023 6 2. 00 2. 00 1.
27th May 2023 4 1. 00 1. 33 1.
28th May 2023 11 3. 00 3. 00 2.
29th May 2023 4 0. 67 1. 00 1.
30th May 2023 5 1. 00 1. 00 1.
31st May 2023 10 2. 33 1. 67 3.
1st June 2023 13 3. 67 2. 67 3.
2nd June 2023 5 2. 00 1. 67 2.
3rd June 2023 5 1. 67 1. 67 1.
4th June 2023 10 2. 33 1. 67 2.

Middle Latitude

Date A K-indices
6th May 2023 21 4 5 3 3 4 3 3 2
7th May 2023 8 1 2 2 2 2 3 2 2
8th May 2023 13 4 2 2 2 3 3 2 3
9th May 2023 11 3 3 1 2 2 2 1 4
10th May 2023 19 3 5 2 3 4 3 2 3
11th May 2023 10 2 3 2 2 3 2 2 3
12th May 2023 15 2 3 3 2 5 2 2 3
13th May 2023 12 2 2 3 2 2 2 3 4
14th May 2023 9 1 2 1 1 3 3 3 2
15th May 2023 6 1 0 1 1 3 2 2 2
16th May 2023 10 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2
17th May 2023 5 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 0
18th May 2023 8 1 1 1 2 3 0 4 1
19th May 2023 10 1 0 1 2 3 2 3 4
20th May 2023 26 4 5 5 3 4 3 3 3
21st May 2023 19 2 3 2 2 3 4 4 5
22nd May 2023 17 4 3 3 2 3 3 3 4
23rd May 2023 11 3 3 2 2 2 1 3 3
24th May 2023 10 2 3 1 2 3 2 2 3
25th May 2023 11 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 1
26th May 2023 6 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 1
27th May 2023 5 1 2 1 1 2 2 1 2
28th May 2023 11 3 3 3 2 3 2 2 2
29th May 2023 5 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 2
30th May 2023 6 1 0 2 2 3 1 1 2
31st May 2023 11 3 2 3 2 1 3 2 3
1st June 2023 14 3 3 3 3 4 2 2 2
2nd June 2023 8 2 2 2 2 3 2 1 2
3rd June 2023 5 1 2 1 2 2 1 1 2
4th June 2023 2 2 2 3 3 3 3

High Latitude

Date A K-indices
6th May 2023 40 5 5 4 6 5 5 3 2
7th May 2023 13 2 2 3 4 2 3 3 2
8th May 2023 21 4 3 3 1 5 5 2 2
9th May 2023 17 4 4 2 3 4 3 1 3
10th May 2023 27 4 5 2 5 5 4 2 2
11th May 2023 11 3 3 4 2 2 2 1 2
12th May 2023 23 2 4 4 4 5 4 3 2
13th May 2023 2 2 3 0
14th May 2023 8 1 0 0 1 4 3 2
15th May 2023 4 2 1 0 0 1 2 2 2
16th May 2023 7 2 3 3 0 2 2 1 1
17th May 2023 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 1 0
18th May 2023 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
19th May 2023 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 2
20th May 2023 5 5 5 5
21st May 2023 36 2 4 5 6 4 4
22nd May 2023 40 4 4 6 6 5 3 3 4
23rd May 2023 19 3 4 5 4 2 1 2 3
24th May 2023 16 3 4 2 3 4 3 3 2
25th May 2023 21 3 3 4 5 5 2 2 1
26th May 2023 7 2 3 3 1 2 1 1 1
27th May 2023 4 2 2 1 1 0 1 0 2
28th May 2023 20 2 3 4 5 5 2 2 1
29th May 2023 2 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1
30th May 2023 3 1 0 1 2 1 1 1 1
31st May 2023 12 2 3 4 2 0 4 2 2
1st June 2023 20 3 3 4 3 5 4 1 2
2nd June 2023 4 1 2 3 1 0 0 1 0
3rd June 2023 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 1
4th June 2023 2 2 3 4 3 1 3

About

The K-index quantifies disturbances in the horizontal component of earth's magnetic field with an integer in the range 0–9 with 1 being calm and 5 or more indicating a geomagnetic storm. It is derived from the maximum fluctuations of horizontal components observed on a magnetometer during a three-hour interval. The label K comes from the German word Kennziffer meaning “characteristic digit”. The K-index was introduced by Julius Bartels in 1938.

The Estimated 3-hour Planetary Kp-index is derived at the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center using data from the following ground-based magnetometers:

  • Sitka, Alaska
  • Meanook, Canada
  • Ottawa, Canada
  • Fredericksburg, Virginia
  • Hartland, UK
  • Wingst, Germany
  • Niemegk, Germany
  • Canberra, Australia

These data are made available thanks to the cooperative efforts between SWPC and data providers around the world, which currently includes the U.S. Geological Survey, Natural Resources Canada (NRCAN), the British Geological Survey, the German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ), and Geoscience Australia. Important magnetometer observations are also contributed by the Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris and the Korean Space Weather Center K-index Watches are issued when the highest predicted NOAA estimated Kp-indices for a day are K = 5, 6, 7, or >= 8 and is reported in terms of the NOAA G scale. K-index Warnings are issued when NOAA estimated Kp-indices of 4, 5, 6, and 7 or greater are expected. K-index Alerts are issued when the NOAA estimated Kp-indices reach 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, or 9.


More info
Source de données: NOAA, Wikipedia

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